One example of how rational decisions compound into real losses
Each department makes a defensible call. Drag the slider to see one illustrative way those calls can interact across a fare line like yours.
It cascades across five business functions — fare erosion, guest mix shift, onboard revenue loss, loyalty misallocation, and repeat-guest attrition — compounding into ~$80M in annual value erosion on a $2B fare line.
Illustrative model on a $2B fare line at an 8% discount. Total value at risk scales with fare base and discount depth — a larger line or heavier discounting pushes the figure well above $80M. Our diagnostic calibrates these to your actual data.
Every discount changes who shows up next season. Departments optimize local KPIs while guest equity, the asset that determines your valuation in five years, erodes in ways this quarter’s load factor won’t show.
Strategic rigor, grounded in operating reality.
Ethan Hawkes
Former VP of Onboard Revenue at MSC Cruises. Nearly a decade at McKinsey. CEO of PlacePass, acquired by Hopper. Cornell Hotel School and Johnson MBA.
He has run the P&L conditions these frameworks are meant to improve.
LinkedIn
Dr. Rob Kwortnik
Associate Professor at Cornell's Nolan School. Author of 30+ publications on cruise economics, service operations, loyalty, and experience design.
His work gives the firm a stronger starting point than generic strategy frameworks translated into cruise after the fact.
Cornell ProfileThe framework that turns siloed decisions into compounding value.
Most companies measure customer lifetime value. Guest Equity is what lifetime value becomes when you account for the full range of inputs that predict long-term portfolio value: not just what a guest spends, but what they influence, what they contribute to the experience, and whether their commitment to the brand is strengthening or fading.
Financial Value
What the guest spends, net of acquisition, distribution, and cost-to-serve.
Influence Value
Who books because of them. Referrals, reviews, social reach, word of mouth.
Co-Creation Value
How they shape the experience for staff and for other guests.
Loyalty Value
Whether the relationship deepens. Commitment trajectory, not just program tier.
Three levers. One system.
Guest Equity Architecture translates this value model into three operational levers. Managed as an integrated system, they compound. Managed in functional silos, they cannibalize each other.
Guest Portfolio
The Foundation
Know which guests warrant investment across all four dimensions, and which ones do not. Until your team shares an evidence-based definition of guest value, commercial decisions rest on assumption.
Commercial Discipline
The Fastest Win
Ensure daily pricing, promotion, and loyalty decisions are consistent with the portfolio view. This is where siloed operations leave the most money on the table.
Experience Design
The Long-Term Moat
Build the signature moments that drive influence, co-creation, and loyalty value over time. The lever competitors cannot replicate through pricing alone.
| Typical question: | Guest Equity question: |
|---|---|
| How do we fill the remaining capacity? | Which demand is worth winning? |
| Which offer got the highest response? | Which offer created profitable, incremental demand? |
| How do we drive more loyalty engagement? | Which loyalty investment changed future behavior? |
Find the question. Build the evidence. Transfer the capability.
Find the question
1–2 weeks
What decision are you trying to make? What evidence gap prevents it? We leave with a defensible question and a clear scope.
Build the evidence
3–6 weeks
We analyze your bookings, pricing, promotions, loyalty, and onboard spend. Models, counterfactuals, and board-ready recommendations.
Transfer the capability
Post-engagement
Your team gets the models, the methodology, and a working session to own the next iteration. We succeed when you do not need us again.
Four engagement types. Each scoped to one decision.
Every engagement is fixed-fee, principals-only, and ends with a transfer: your team owns the output.
Price & Offer Profit Audit
3–4 weeks
How much of your promotional spend is genuinely incremental? We audit your fare, promotion, and distribution data to quantify leakage and identify the highest-value pricing changes.
You leave with: Quantified fare-erosion map, counterfactual scenarios, and a prioritized action list your revenue team can execute immediately.
Booked Revenue Activation
4–6 weeks
Between booking and embarkation sits a commercial window most lines underuse. We design a pre-cruise revenue strategy calibrated to your guest segments and onboard economics.
You leave with: Segment-level pre-cruise offer playbook, revenue model, and an A/B test plan ready to run on your next wave of sailings.
Commercial Reset for a New Leader
6–8 weeks
You just took over as CCO, SVP Revenue, or CEO. You need a fact base, not opinion. We build a cross-functional commercial diagnostic so your first 90 days are evidence-driven.
You leave with: An integrated commercial scorecard, guest-equity baseline, and a prioritized change roadmap your leadership team has already pressure-tested.
Experience-to-Rebooking Blueprint
5–7 weeks
Guest satisfaction is high but rebooking rates are flat. We map the experience-to-loyalty chain, identify where the conversion breaks, and design the interventions that move repeat revenue.
You leave with: Journey-stage conversion analysis, loyalty-driver hierarchy, and a designed set of interventions with projected revenue impact.
Not sure which fits? Bring one question and we will scope it in the first call
What this looks like in practice.
An illustrative example drawn from real commercial operating work. Additional examples available in conversation.
Promotional Non-Incrementality Audit
In a premium cruise context, teams were running heavy promotional cadence without a shared fact base for what was truly incremental. Revenue management and marketing had different theories, but the organization lacked a clean counterfactual tied to booking behavior.
Booking analysis suggested a meaningful share of promotional volume was likely non-incremental — demand that may have converted without the offer. The commercial implication was clear: promotional intensity was putting fare integrity at risk.
The operating move was to reduce unnecessary promotional complexity, shift attention toward higher-quality booked-guest monetization, and install a recurring incrementality discipline inside revenue management.
Illustrative scenario based on real commercial operating work and pattern recognition, not presented as a formal published case study.
Bring one live question. We will scope a diagnostic in the first call.
Book a Working SessionWhat makes this different.
Cruise executives have been pitched by McKinsey, BCG, Bain, and AlixPartners. Here is the honest comparison.
| Traditional Strategy Consulting | Hawkes & Kwortnik |
|---|---|
| Team of analysts led by a generalist partner. Senior involvement is limited to kickoff and close-out. | Two principals. Both cruise-specific. You work directly with us from day one. |
| 3–6 month engagement. $500K–$2M fee. Scope expands. | 3–8 week sprints. Fixed fee, scoped to one decision. No scope creep. |
| Polished narrative deck. Your team learns to depend on the consultant to update the analysis. | Working models, documented methodology, and a capability transfer session. You own the next iteration. |
| Broad strategic frameworks adapted from adjacent industries and applied to cruise after the fact. | 30+ peer-reviewed publications on cruise pricing, guest loyalty, and experience design — grounded in cruise and hospitality research, not adapted from adjacent industries after the fact. |
| Ongoing retainer. The relationship continues because leaving feels risky. | We succeed when you do not need us again. Every engagement ends with a transfer, not a dependency. |
Before you reach out.
How is this different from McKinsey or BCG?
Partners-only. You work directly with a former cruise line VP and a Cornell professor — not a team of analysts. Engagements run weeks (not months), deliverables are quantified (not narrative), and we measure impact against your baseline.
What data do you need from us?
Typically: historical booking data, pricing/promotion calendars, loyalty membership and redemption data, and onboard spend by segment. We work under NDA and scope exact requirements in the working session.
Do you work with lines outside the Big Three?
Yes. The economics of guest mix, pricing integrity, and experience design are consistent across premium, luxury, expedition, and river segments — the levers just scale differently.
What does a typical engagement cost?
Fixed-fee, scoped to one decision. Ranges from 3–4 week diagnostics to 6–8 week programs. Bring a live question to the working session and we'll scope it honestly.
Can you work under NDA?
Yes. Mutual NDA is standard. We can operate within your IT environment for sensitive data. Confidentiality is a given.
Bring one live commercial decision.
In 30 minutes, we'll pressure-test the question, identify the evidence gap, and tell you honestly whether deeper work is warranted.
- 30 minutes with Ethan and Rob
- One question only, not a general capabilities overview
- Clear next step, even if the answer is “do not hire us”
Who should join: whoever owns the decision (often CCO, CEO, or Revenue — occasionally Finance or Loyalty). Both principals are on the call.
What to bring: one live commercial decision, in plain language; a slide or data extract helps but is not required. No NDA needed to schedule.
What happens after: we follow up with what we heard, the evidence gap, and a straight recommendation on whether a scoped engagement makes sense. Fees apply only if you choose follow-on work.
Prefer email? Reach Ethan at [email protected] or Rob at [email protected].
Your information is confidential. No mailing list, no drip sequence, no nonsense. We reply within one business day.